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CORONA VIRUS-TRANSMISSION CHARACTERISTICS
Very low risk of transmission from surfaces.
Very low risk from outdoor activities. Very high risk from gatherings in enclosed spaces like offices, religious places, cinema halls or theatres. These findings that have been emerging for a while need to be applied by people to manage the situation in the best manner possible. Time to reduce panic about surface transmission, and time to not be too eager to go back to office.
Who is expected to catch corona.... an interesting analysis
WHAT IT TAKES TO INFECT
To successfully infect you, the virus needs a dose of: ~1000 viral particles (vp)
The typical environmental spread of activities:
Breath: ~20 vp/minute
Speaking: ~200 vp/minute
Cough: ~200 million vp (enough of these may remain in air for hours in a poorly ventilated environment)
Sneeze: ~200 million vp
FORMULA
Successful infection = Exposure to Virus * Time
SCENARIOS
- Being in vicinity of someone (with 6 ft distancing): Low risk if limit to less than 45 minutes
- Talking to someone face to face (with mask): Low risk if limit to less than 4 minutes
- Someone passing you walking/jogging/cycling: Low risk
- Well-ventilated spaces, with distancing: Low risk (limit duration)
- Grocery shopping: Medium risk (can reduce to low by limiting time and following hygiene)
- Indoor spaces: High risk
- Public Bathrooms/Common areas: High fomite/surface transfer risk
- Restaurants: High risk (can reduce to Medium risk by sitting outdoors with distancing and surface touch awareness)
- Workplaces/Schools (even with social distancing): Very high risk, including high fomite transfer risk
- Parties/Weddings: Very high risk
- Business networking/conferences: Very high risk
- Arenas/Concerts/Cinemas: Very high risk
RISK FACTORS
The bottom line factors you can use to calculate your risk are:
- indoors vs outdoors
- narrow spaces vs large, ventilated spaces
- high people density vs low density
- longer exposure vs brief exposure
The risks will be higher for former scenarios.